Kalshi

Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara founded Kalshi in 2018. In its 2021 financing announcement, the company recalled that their work on event-driven hedging and investment products at financial institutions had exposed how difficult it was for ordinary investors to trade an event's outcome directly. They sought to create a dedicated event-contract exchange. Early work focused on regulatory authorization, trading infrastructure and hiring, with Mansour as CEO and Lopes Lara as COO.⁠[1]

Y Combinator's directory lists Kalshi in its W19 batch, identifies both co-founders and gives New York as its location. The accelerator and its follow-on investment network also participated in early financing.⁠[2]

On November 4, the CFTC announced that it had designated KalshiEX LLC as a contract market; its registration page records November 3 as the designation date. This regulatory status subjects the venue to the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC rules applicable to designated contract markets (DCMs). Individual contracts remain subject to their own filing, review and trading requirements.⁠[3][4]

On February 17, Kalshi announced a $30 million Series A led by Sequoia CapitalSequoia CapitalSequoia Capital is a venture capital firm founded by Don Valentine in 1972, investing from the seed stage through the growth stage. Its historical investments include Apple, Cisco, Google, YouTube, Airbnb, and Stripe; in 2021 it introduced the Sequoia Capital Fund structure, which can continue to hold public securities, and in 2023 its regional businesses became independent brands and partnerships.Open the full entry, with participants including Charles Schwab, Henry Kravis, SV AngelSV AngelSV Angel is a San Francisco venture capital firm cofounded in 2009 by angel investor Ron Conway and former Google executive David Lee. It typically writes small follow-on checks in seed rounds and has invested in companies such as Airbnb, Pinterest, and Dropbox; in 2018 it said it would no longer raise new funds from outside investors, and from 2022 it set up growth funds.Open the full entry, Neo and YC Continuity. The announcement said the funding would support the exchange's launch, while access was still through a waiting list. A later FEDS study confirmed that Kalshi began operating in 2021, initially offering economic event contracts on inflation, employment and interest rates.⁠[1][5]

On June 12, Kalshi submitted self-certified congressional control contracts for cash settlement based on whether a party controlled the Senate or House during a specified term. On September 22, the CFTC prohibited their listing, trading and clearing on Kalshi, finding that they involved gaming and activities unlawful under state law and were contrary to the public interest. That decision became the subject of subsequent administrative litigation.⁠[6]

On August 29, the CFTC announced a derivatives clearing organization (DCO) registration order for Kalshi Klear LLC; the registration record gives August 28 as the date. Kalshi Klear and the already designated KalshiEX are affiliates performing clearing and trading-venue functions, respectively.⁠[7]

Kalshi sued the CFTC in November 2023. In September 2024, a federal district court vacated the congressional control contract prohibition, holding that the statutory gaming and unlawful-activity categories could not be applied as the CFTC had done. Trading briefly began on September 12 before a temporary stay. On October 2, the D.C. Circuit declined to continue the stay because the CFTC had not demonstrated irreparable harm. The appellate ruling addressed a stay request, not final authorization for every prediction market.⁠[8]

The CFTC's registration page records a January 17 amendment to Kalshi's designation order permitting intermediated futures trading. This provided an explicit regulatory basis for brokers to serve as customer interfaces while Kalshi operated the trading venue.⁠[4]

Robinhood Derivatives announced a prediction-markets hub in the Robinhood app, initially offering KalshiEX contracts on the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target rate and the men's and women's college basketball tournaments. Customers needed approval for a Robinhood Derivatives account and faced additional trading restrictions. RobinhoodRobinhoodRobinhood is a financial services brand co-founded in 2013 by Vlad Tenev and Baiju Bhatt; its publicly listed parent company is Robinhood Markets, Inc., headquartered in Menlo Park, California, United States. The company has grown from commission-free mobile securities trading into crypto assets, retirement accounts, and other financial services, and trades on Nasdaq under the symbol HOOD.Open the full entry acted as the futures commission merchant, with KalshiEX providing the venue.⁠[9]

The CFTC's 2026 proposed prediction-market rulemaking recorded that the appeal in the congressional control contract case was dismissed on May 7, 2025. That litigation over the 2023 prohibition followed a different legal course from later disputes involving sports contracts and state gambling laws.⁠[10]

Mansour announced a $185 million Series C at a $2 billion valuation, led by Paradigm with participation from Sequoia, Multicoin, Neo and BOND, among others. Planned uses included expanding engineering and infrastructure teams, adding brokers and liquidity, and developing new market structures.⁠[11]

Kalshi announced a $300 million Series D at a $5 billion valuation, co-led by Andreessen HorowitzAndreessen HorowitzAndreessen Horowitz (a16z) is a venture capital firm founded in 2009 by Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz. It invests from the seed stage through the growth stage and provides operational support to its portfolio companies.Open the full entry and Sequoia Capital. Participants included Paradigm, Coinbase Ventures, General CatalystGeneral CatalystGeneral Catalyst (GC) is an investment firm founded in 2000 and headquartered in San Francisco, United States, created by Joel Cutler, David Fialkow and Bill Fitzgerald, that backs companies from the seed stage through growth.Open the full entry, Spark CapitalSpark CapitalSpark Capital is a U.S. venture capital firm founded in Boston in 2005, with offices in San Francisco, New York and Boston. Its early-stage and growth funds back technology businesses across fintech, enterprise software, AI and consumer products. Investments have included Twitter, Tumblr, Oculus, Plaid and Anthropic.Open the full entry and CapitalG. It also announced expansion to users in more than 140 countries, sharing a liquidity pool across common event markets. That figure described the company's stated service coverage at the time, not uniform laws or eligibility requirements across those countries.⁠[12]

On October 22, the NHLNHLThe National Hockey League (NHL) is a men’s professional ice hockey league with clubs in the United States and Canada. Founded in Montreal in 1917, it comprises 32 teams and awards the Stanley Cup to its playoff champion.Open the full entry announced multiyear U.S. agreements naming Kalshi and Polymarket as official prediction-market partners.⁠[13]

On December 2, Kalshi formally announced a $1 billion Series E at an $11 billion valuation, led by Paradigm. Participants included Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Meritech, IVPIVPIVP (Institutional Venture Partners) is a growth-stage venture capital firm based in Menlo Park, California, founded by Reid W. Dennis in 1980; it has invested in companies including Twitter, Dropbox, Coinbase and Figma.Open the full entry, ARK InvestARK InvestARK Invest (ARK Investment Management LLC) is a U.S. investment management firm founded by Cathie Wood in 2013, known for actively managed ETFs focused on disruptive innovation such as ARK Innovation ETF; it is headquartered in St. Petersburg, Florida.Open the full entry, Anthos, CapitalG and Y Combinator. Planned uses included expanding customer reach, brokerage access, news partnerships and product categories.⁠[14]

Kalshi announced that it would become CNNCNNCNN (Cable News Network) is an Atlanta-based news organization founded by Ted Turner on June 1, 1980, as the world’s first 24-hour television news channel. It has been owned in turn by Turner Broadcasting System, Time Warner, AT&T and Warner Bros. Discovery, became part of Skydance Corporation along with Warner Bros. Discovery in October 2026, and is one of the five networks that rotate in the White House television pool.Open the full entry's official prediction-market partner, supplying real-time political, news and cultural market data to programs and editorial teams. The partnership included analysis involving Harry Enten, on-screen displays and a live ticker. Supplying market probabilities is distinct from a news organization's independent editorial work.⁠[15]

On December 4, the companies announced a multiyear exclusive partnership to bring Kalshi data to CNBCCNBCCNBC is an American business and financial news cable channel launched by NBC in 1989; it merged with its rival FNN in 1991 and since January 2026 has been part of Versant Media Group, spun off from Comcast.Open the full entry's television, digital and subscription products from 2026, including Squawk Box, Fast Money and market tickers. Kalshi also planned a hub for markets selected by CNBC.⁠[16]

Phantom and Kalshi announced in-wallet prediction markets. According to the announcement, users would use SolanaSolanaSolana is a proof-of-stake (PoS) public blockchain designed for high throughput and low latency, with SOL as its native token; it was developed by Solana Labs and launched Mainnet Beta in March 2020. It is known for design choices such as its Proof of History clock and parallel execution, suffered several network-wide outages in its early years, and became one of the crypto industry’s focal points in events including the FTX collapse, U.S. SEC lawsuits, and the listing of Solana ETFs.Open the full entry tokens or CASH to buy tokenized positions referencing Kalshi prediction-market positions, with live prices, settlement notifications and market chats. This structure brings exchange positions on-chain through third parties, differing from opening an account and trading native event contracts directly on KalshiEX.⁠[17]

Kalshi announced an independent surveillance advisory committee and collaborations with Solidus Labs and Daniel Taylor, director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab, to expand detection of suspicious trading and manipulation. The committee planned regular statistics on suspicious activity, investigations and disciplinary actions. Kalshi also appointed Robert DeNault to lead enforcement.⁠[18]

Anthony M. Diercks, Jared Dean Katz and Jonathan H. Wright examined Kalshi's interest-rate, inflation and employment contracts in the FEDS working paper Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets, comparing them with surveys and other market-implied forecasts. They found that the markets offered frequently updated probability distributions, with some indicators in the sample matching professional forecasts' errors and others performing better. The paper expresses its authors' research views, not Federal Reserve endorsement of the platform or every contract.⁠[5]

The CFTC disclosed two cases handled internally by Kalshi. A political candidate who traded on his own candidacy was ordered to disgorge $246.36, fined $2,000 and suspended for five years. An editor associated with a YouTubeYouTubeYouTube is Google’s video-sharing and creator platform, founded in 2005 by Steve Chen, Chad Hurley, and Jawed Karim and acquired by Google in 2006. Built around video uploading, viewing, and creator earnings, the platform has developed Shorts, YouTube Music, Premium, YouTube TV, and products for children, and is headquartered in San Bruno, California, United States.Open the full entry channel who traded using potentially advance knowledge of video content was ordered to disgorge $5,397.58, fined $15,000 and suspended for two years. The CFTC emphasized its continuing authority to investigate violations; these particular sanctions were imposed through the exchange's internal process.⁠[19]

On March 5, users filed a proposed class action in the Central District of California, alleging inadequate disclosure of a death exclusion in a contract on Khamenei leaving office and refusal to make the full payout they expected. ReutersReutersReuters is an international news agency founded in London in 1851 by Paul Julius Reuter and is now the news business of Thomson Reuters. It provides text, photo, video, and graphics coverage to media and institutional clients and distributes it through channels such as Reuters Connect.Open the full entry reported both sides: plaintiffs said the wording led them to expect payment upon his departure, while Kalshi said the rules had never changed and it had voluntarily reimbursed related fees and net losses. These were allegations and the company's response, not a judicial finding of fraud.⁠[20]

Kalshi announced screening tools intended to prevent candidates from trading on their own elections and athletes, referees and staff from trading relevant markets in their leagues before orders were placed. Sports screening involved IC360, and market pages gained reporting tools. The announcement acknowledged that screening could not guarantee detection of every attempt to evade restrictions.⁠[21]

ARK Invest and Kalshi announced plans to explore three applications: market probabilities as research signals; tracking indicators such as corporate production, deliveries and regulatory approvals; and management of specific event risks. ARK intended to request and monitor relevant markets as inputs alongside fundamental and quantitative analysis. The announcement did not establish verified investment returns.⁠[22]

The CFTC filed an amicus brief in a Massachusetts case involving Kalshi, arguing that the Commodity Exchange Act gave it exclusive jurisdiction over relevant derivatives markets and preempted conflicting state law. It also supported federal prediction-market oversight through litigation or participation in cases. State regulators argued that sports contracts were wagers subject to state gambling law. The disputes concerned access, protection of minors and regulatory authority.⁠[23]

Kalshi announced expanded account and trading-risk controls, including additional selfie verification for some high-risk users, wider use of two-factor authentication, identity-fraud detection and an optional Inner Circle feature sharing trading activity with family or friends. Health Check would recommend deposit limits based on trading behavior, while existing self-limit and self-exclusion tools remained available.⁠[24]

On May 7, Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series F at a $22 billion valuation, led by CoatueCoatueCoatue is a technology- and innovation-focused investment management firm founded by Philippe Laffont in 1999, operating in both public and private markets. Its current website lists Thomas Laffont as co-founder and chief investment officer of private investments; a Form ADV filed on July 29, 2026, disclosed regulatory assets under management of $92,705,722,582.Open the full entry, with participants including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan StanleyMorgan StanleyMorgan Stanley is an American global financial services firm that grew from an investment banking partnership into a publicly traded financial group spanning investment banking, securities trading, wealth management, and investment management.Open the full entry and ARK Invest. It said the funding would support access for hedge funds, asset managers, professional trading firms and insurers, along with block trading, risk products and brokerage integrations. Volume and growth figures were company-reported; funding and valuation are not operating revenue.⁠[25]

On May 29, Kalshi announced crypto perpetual futures, while the announcement still offered a waiting list and said further assets required regulatory review. By July, the Kalshi Pro announcement explicitly listed tradable perpetual futures. These contracts produce gains and losses as asset prices change and use margin and funding payments, unlike event contracts settled against a specified outcome.⁠[26][27]

Kalshi released a beta of Kalshi Pro, a professional desktop terminal sharing accounts, balances and the exchange with the regular app. Features included multimarket workspaces, full order books, live trades, bulk order management, and perpetual-futures charts and position tools. It targeted users trading several markets simultaneously who needed denser information and more extensive order controls.⁠[27]

New York announced a lawsuit against KalshiEX alleging that it offered sports, cultural and election wagering without a state gambling license, including in-state sports wagering to users aged 18–20. The state sought an injunction, disgorgement, customer compensation and penalties. These were the plaintiff's allegations; Kalshi's principal defense against state oversight was federal derivatives-law preemption.⁠[28]

Kalshi Inc.'s Form D recorded a first sale on April 3, an approximately $1.5 billion equity offering, about $1.12001 billion sold and $379.99 million remaining, with 71 investors. A company spokesperson subsequently confirmed to CointelegraphCointelegraphCointelegraph is a digital news outlet covering blockchain, digital assets, artificial intelligence, and fintech, known for its cartoon-style news illustrations. It also runs businesses including Cointelegraph Magazine, research, an accelerator, and events.Open the full entry that the filing related to the Series F at a $22 billion valuation. The filing and May announcement therefore overlap and should not be added as separate financing rounds.⁠[29][30]

On August 28, the Ninth Circuit affirmed the dissolution of preliminary injunctive relief concerning sports contracts in KalshiEX v. Assad. It held that Kalshi had not shown likely federal preemption of Nevada gambling regulation and rejected its interpretation that the sports contracts necessarily qualified as swaps under federal law. Election-contract questions were remanded to the district court. The result diverged from a Third Circuit ruling supporting preliminary relief for Kalshi that year; the dispute had no nationally uniform final resolution.⁠[31]

The CFTC settled an administrative case against Gabriel Perez, finding that while working as a White House teleprompter operator he had used advance access to presidential speeches to trade contracts on whether specified words would be spoken. The order required disgorgement of $107,539.02, a $65,000 penalty and a three-year trading ban. The CFTC thanked KalshiEX for its assistance. The case concerned the trader, not an equivalent penalty against Kalshi.⁠[32]

New Jersey's attorney general announced a petition for a writ of certiorari seeking Supreme Court review of the Third Circuit's sports prediction-market ruling. The state highlighted a circuit split and sought clarity on the boundary between federal derivatives regulation and state sports-gambling law. Filing a petition did not mean the Court had accepted the case or ruled on its merits.⁠[33]

In a Bits + Bips interview, institutional head Andy Ross said Kalshi had submitted FX and interest-rate perpetual-futures applications and sought a unified trading interface for multiple asset classes. Unchained's September 1 report said the filing was not yet on the CFTC's public docket that Tuesday afternoon. This described applications and expansion plans, not confirmed approval or launch.⁠[34]

Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series G at a $40 billion post-money valuation, co-led by Wellington and Sequoia. It reported annualized volume above $1 trillion and non-sports annualized revenue above $1 billion; these company figures do not represent realized full-year revenue.⁠[35]

Plans included institutional business, indices, single-stock perpetual futures, compute markets and expansion in Latin America and Europe. Planned products were not all announced as live.⁠[35]

A typical event contract offers Yes and No positions on a verifiable question. Prices generally range from one to 99 cents. At normal settlement, the correct side pays $1 per contract and the incorrect side pays zero; traders may also exit before expiry when a counterparty is available. Prices reflect terms at which participants are willing to trade and can indicate market-implied probabilities, but do not guarantee outcomes. Markets cover economic indicators, elections, sports and cultural events.⁠[36]

Kalshi earns transaction fees, with rates varying across markets and some markets charging maker fees on executed resting orders. Settlement follows each contract's predetermined terms and information sources, using data published by the specified source agency. A delay may separate the event's conclusion from settlement. Market titles, summaries and complete terms provide different levels of detail; special settlement conditions must be checked against the specific contract rules.⁠[37][38]

Perpetual futures have no conventional expiry and use initial margin, maintenance margin and mark-to-market settlement. Insufficient account equity can trigger liquidation. Funding payments help align contract prices with spot reference prices. Official explanations describe eight-hour calculation periods and payments between long and short holders, separate from exchange trading fees. Leverage increases exposure and allows adverse price moves to consume margin more quickly.⁠[39][40]

Kalshi Inc.'s August 2026 Form D identifies it as a Delaware corporation with its principal place of business in New York. It lists Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara as executive officers and directors, and Alfred LinAlfred LinAlfred Lin is an American venture capitalist who has been a partner at Sequoia Capital since 2010 and, since November 2025, one of the firm’s co-stewards together with Pat Grady. Before joining Sequoia he was an executive at LinkExchange, Tellme Networks, and Zappos, companies acquired by Microsoft and Amazon; at Sequoia he has represented the firm on the boards of companies including Airbnb and DoorDash.Open the full entry, Michael SeibelMichael SeibelMichael Seibel is an American entrepreneur and investor and a co-founder of Justin.tv (which became Twitch) and Socialcam. He led the Y Combinator startup accelerator from 2016 to 2024 and became a Partner Emeritus in March 2025. He has been a director of Reddit since June 2020 and a director of Dropbox since the same year.Open the full entry and Matt HuangMatt HuangMatt Huang is an investor and entrepreneur who is co-founder and managing partner of the technology investment firm Paradigm and founded and leads Tempo, a payments blockchain jointly incubated by Stripe and Paradigm.Open the full entry as directors. Under the brand, KalshiEX LLC operates the event-contract venue and Kalshi Klear LLC is the affiliated clearing organization. Their legal identities and regulatory functions are distinct.⁠[29][7]